2024

 

21st March

 

    I am not seeing much volatility on stocks these days. Are we coming to the end of this bull market cycle? Never make predictions. Follow the stocks. It is looking like SMCI, MSTR are done for now. NVDA hopefully has more to go. 

 

   Still waiting for a stock like HOLO

 

 

  And OCEA:

 

 

 

 

18th March

 

Whilst everyone is trading NVDA, SMCI and MSTR these little unkown stocks move even faster. Look at DAVE. Not not "Dave" but D.A.V.E. the stock. What does the company do? I have no idea. It's gone from $5 to $43 in less than six months. Take your piece from the middle.

Leaders keep on leading. Who would have guessed it? *Darvas, Livermore...?)

You should have been in stocks like this below $500 and simply enjoy the ride.

On a different note I think I might have worked out a system to catch great moves like OCEA and HOLO to make 200% moves in a matter of a few weeks...even a few days sometimes. The big problem was getting the accuracy up. I had to filter out the losing trades. I'll see how it goes in the months ahead as it looks like there are only 1 trades every 4-6 weeks. Which is fine

 

14th March:

Come on...what is going on here? Only in Chinese stocks can this happen. Still there was 10-20 points to be had for the quick, savvy trader: If you got in at $40 or $50. It fell hard from its high.

So how could we profit from such a move?

Well I have thought about scanning for stocks that have made over 100% moves on the day and over 1 million shares...Not sure that is necessary?

 

 

 

BUT then waiting for the correction.

Then waiting for a huge up day again..maybe > 50%. It always looks too high when it happens. But we want to be crazy high and sell stupid high.

Exits....? The hardest part of any trading method. Where to get out?

Even on SWIN it goes from $30 to $45 for a quick 50% move. So you get in $45- $50... It hits a high of $72 within the hour and falls. ...We can't pick tops..so do you get out at $60? $55...? Even so it's a good 15 points trade in about one hour.

So here is CXAI:

On the 28th Feb 2024 It makes over a 100% move on the day...

Wait for the correction...

Wait for the 50%+ move on the day...

13Th March it happens. But the problem is your entry is at $3.. Virtually no profit on this one. Still it's an idea to watch and maybe tweak.

 

 

 

Hmmmm....wonder what happened there?

11th March:

Bitcoin is in the news this morning I see. A sure sign of "Tulip mania". The only way to trade such volatility like Bitcoin is to use a long term trend following system and hope to catch some big moves that last months and give you big gains.

Is B.T.C. Any better than stocks like NVDA, SMCI, META,AMD? Which is less volatile and safer?

The "newer" stocks usually have the volatility.

So look at these stocks...More importantly how do we profit?

9th March 2024

 

Feb 2024:

BMR you little ****** er

This is how it looked INTRA Day: All done in the first two hours. Even if you got in late at $15 there was 15- 20 points to be made...

 

I wonder where these market leading momentum stocks are going? Reminds me of 1999 all over again. What is high can go much higher....but when they fall...

Jan 2024:

A New Year.... Wow how did that happen?

I hear all the time. You can't beat the market. You cannot make over 20% per annum. Blah, blah...

If you went all in on SMCI at $200 you would be over 400% up now.. OK That's high risk taking.

What about these Funds that manage billions of $$'S


Fund Manager3-Year Performance MW 3-Year Performance EW AUMTop 20 Conc.TurnoverFund RatingSIR Capital Management
Vince Maddi185.42% (41.85% Ann.)151.38% (35.97% Ann.)$ 977.56M65.29%45.78%Robotti Robert
Bob Robotti171.18% (39.45% Ann.)83.02% (22.32% Ann.)$ 694.62M89.00%5.00%Peconic Partners
William Harnisch135.26% (33.00% Ann.)70.73% (19.52% Ann.)$ 2.08B100.00%45.45%Goldentree Asset Management
Steve Tananbaum115.27% (29.12% Ann.)80.03% (21.65% Ann.)$ 962.91M98.36%36.67%Lodge Hill Capital
Clinton Murray112.43% (28.55% Ann.)111.00% (28.26% Ann.)$ 226.99M98.89%45.16% Bridgewater Associates$124,317,200,000Renaissance Technologies$106,026,795,439AQR Capital Management$94,523,700,000

So the top fund with nearly $1 billion managed returned an average over 41% over three years. I am guessing it was not dead on 41% every year but somewhere in the 30% to 50%+ years. You can have 50%+ years trading many hundreds of millions of $$$$'s.

By taking on huge risk but not gambling you can have 70%+ years. Some years.

These funds have averaged out over 35% per annum over y